Hazardous Weather Outlook
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE GREATER SYRACUSE AREA. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREAS OF YATES...SENECA...CAYUGA...AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
NWS BGM Office Hazardous Weather Outlook 
Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS61 KBGM 171044
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FROM THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON...TO NEAR 70 FRIDAY AND
NEAR 80 SATURDAY. THIS STRETCH OF NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 1021 MB HIGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER TODAY
LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AT BEST A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT FROM MID-MORNING ON. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
WITH 850 TEMPS CLOSE TO 1C UP NORTH....AND NEAR 4C DOWN AT KAVP.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 EXCEPT FOR MID TO
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
ONLY WEATHER "HAZARD" OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TONIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OVER A LARGE CHUNK OF THE CWA. WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...NOT HARD
TO IMAGINE MOST OF US DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. IN FACT...OUR BEST RADIATING LOCALES ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS MAY SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO
FREEZING. HOISTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE WYOMING VALLEY OF
NEPA...TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 37-39 RANGE AND THUS LEFT
OUT AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW. THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS THOUGH BECAUSE WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE JUST A TAD TOO HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH SUNNY DAYS AND
CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR EAST INCREASING WAA WILL
BOOST 850 TEMPS FROM AROUND 8/9C FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN
12-14C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THEY CLIMB FROM LOWER 70S FRIDAY TO NEAR 80/LOWER
80S SATURDAY. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...JUST A SPECTACULAR WEEKEND IS
IN STORE. ENJOY!
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
220 AM THU UPDATE... ONCE AGAIN...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED RANGES
ATTM.
ON THE LARGE-SCALE...ERN CONUS RIDGING AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACRS
THE WRN STATES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z SUITE OF
MODELS. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DISC...THERE ARE STILL
DIFFS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SERN/MID-ATL
STATES...AND WEAK UPR-LVL ENERGY TRYING TO PENETRATE THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE GREAT LKS RGN. WE PRESENTLY HAVE SCHC-CHC POPS FOR
SHRA/TSRA STARTING LATER MON...AND LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY.
TEMPS LOOK WARM FOR MID TO LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S-MID 80S.
PREV DISC... PD MARKED BY A SLOWLY RETREATING UPR RDG WITH A BROAD
UPR LOW OVER THE SE CST. DFRNCS IN THE LONG RANGE MODEL IN HANDLING
THE DETAILS OF THE SE LOW...AND A APRCHG COLD FNT FROM THE LAKES END
UP HAVING LTL EFFECT OF THE FCST. XPCT A GNRL INCRS IN HUMIDITY AND
A DECREASE IN STABILITY ALLOWING FOR SCT OR WIDELY SCT CONV BEGINNING
MON...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN. PD WILL ALSO FEATURE WARM AIR WITH
AFTN HI/S ABV NRML AND WITH LIMITED CLD CVR.
FLWD HPC GUID FOR THE PD WITH SOME SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN
TEMPS BASED ON SURROUNDING OFFICES AND MEX GUID.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PD...WITH A DRY AMS RESIDENT ACRS CNY/NE PA. GIVEN
SKC/GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM
LATE...AND THUS WE`VE INSERTED A BRIEF PD OF IFR TWDS DAYBREAK FRI
AT KELM ONLY.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NW ARND 10 KT TODAY...BCMG LGT AND VRBL AFTER 00Z
FRI.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI THROUGH MON...VFR...XCPT LATE NGT VLY FOG PSBL AT KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM