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Hazardous Weather Outlook

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NWS BGM Office Hazardous Weather Outlook *EXT*

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 260819
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK...TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
FIFTIES. AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH...LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...FOR WET SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A RETROGRADING
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SVRL S/WVS ROTATING SWWD ACRS ONT AND QUE. AS HGTS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL FROM THE N TDY...AND OUR SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASES...ISOLATED-SCTD SHWRS ARE
EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH MAX HTG THIS AFTN...MAINLY UP OVER OUR
NRN AND ERN ZNS...SPCLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...WHICH ACTUALLY INCLUDES THE MAJORITY OF CNY AND ALL OF
NE PA...TDY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN-FREE...WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM PTLY SUNNY-MOSTLY CLDY BY AFTN. HIGHS TDY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50-55 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE... TNT-MON...SCTD SHWRS SHOULD DOT MUCH OF CNY AND
NE PA...OWING TO FORCED LIFT AND UNSTABLE CONDS (700-500 MB COLD
CORE) FROM THE ABV MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. BLYR TEMPS
SHOULD BE COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT SOME WET SNOW SHWRS BY EARLY MON
MRNG...SPCLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MON NGT...HGTS ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE AGN...AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THUS...SHWRS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ISOLD WITH TIME...AND ULTIMATELY END ALTOGETHER BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

TUE...INCOMING SFC HIGH PRES AND S/WV RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WX ONCE AGN...INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TYPICAL SPRING PTRN IN THE LONG TERM WITH SLOW MVG CLSD LOWS AS
THE NRN STREAM JET CONTS TO TRANSITION FROM WINTER TO SUMMER.
SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN DETAILS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE LONG
TERM DESPITE A GNRL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WV PTRN. BOTH TRY TO BLD
AN UPR RDG FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SE US CST NEXT WEEK. BIGGEST
DFRNC IS THAT THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP A DEEP TROF OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THAT OCNLY SPINS SOME WET WX THRU THE FCST AREA. EURO IS
DRIER AND KEEPS CLSD LOWS MVG INDEPENDENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WITHOUT DVLPS A LONG WV TROF. BELIEVE THE EURO MAKES MORE SENSE
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE GFS TENDENCY TO BLD DRAMATIC TROFS.

SO...FOR THE PD GNRLY KEPT DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WX...WITH JUST SOME
LOW CHANCE OR SLGT CHANCE AT TIMES...ESP NEAR THE END OF THE PD.
TEMPS WILL CONT A BIT BLO NRML IN THE NLY FLOW...BUT HIER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE EAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-MON...PSBL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DUE TO THE COOL NLY FLOW.

TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/KAH

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion